The Analysis of China’s Investment in V4
The Analysis of China’s Investment in V4
Liu Zuokui
Abstract: This article will concentrate on the investment opportunities brought to China by the V4, the main characteristics of the Chinese investment in V4, and the problems and challenges faced by China against this background. Besides, it will also offer some relative policy suggestions on China’s investment in V4.
Key Words: Visegrad Group, Investment Relationship between China and V4, Policy Suggestions
Introduction
During his trip to Warsaw, Poland in April 2012, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao put forward 12 proposals on promoting China-CEE friendship and cooperation. On September 6 2012, the Inaugural Conference of the Secretariat for Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) was held in Beijing, marking a new important phase of China-CEE cooperation. In November 2013, the new Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visited Bucharest, and attended the China-CEE Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum. A new proposed cooperation framework so called Bucharest Guidelines by Li was supported by CEECs. With the fast growth of economic and trade cooperation between China and CEE, flourishing Chinese investment in V4 and other CEECs has helped stimulate further development of bilateral relations.
1.The Basic Fact of China’s Investment in V4
1.1. China’s investment in V4: Status Quo and Features
After the drastic fracturing of the Soviet Union and subsequent changes in Eastern Europe, V4 countries offered China comparatively big investment opportunities-the transformation period in the 1990s, when all countries in this region were carrying out privatization reforms and market opening policies, offering preferential policies to foreign investors and encouraging the private economy to various extents. Later, with the acceleration of integration into the EU, these opportunities gradually disappeared. Unfortunately, restricted by its investment capacity, China failed to issue relevant investment strategies at the time. It only encouraged Chinese emigrants to actively participate in the market development of V4, mainly through short-term investment (Li Minghuan, 2013, p,42). From 2004 to 2012, although the investment stock volume of China in V4 was rising (see Table 1), the base number was comparatively low, and China has yet to fully exploit the investment potential of V4.
Table One:The Investment Stock of China in V4 from 2004-2012
(Unit: Ten Thousand US Dollar)
2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
Estonia | - | 126 | 126 | 126 | 126 | 750 | 750 | 750 | 350 |
Bulgaria | 146 | 299 | 474 | 474 | 474 | 231 | 1860 | 7256 | 12674 |
Poland | 287 | 1239 | 8718 | 9893 | 10993 | 12030 | 14031 | 20126 | 20811 |
Czech Republic | 111 | 138 | 1467 | 1964 | 3243 | 4934 | 5233 | 6683 | 20245 |
Latvia | 161 | 161 | 231 | 57 | 57 | 54 | 54 | 54 | 54 |
Lithuania | - | 393 | 393 | 393 | 393 | 393 | 393 | 393 | 697 |
Romania | 3110 | 3943 | 6563 | 7288 | 8566 | 9334 | 12495 | 12583 | 16109 |
Slovakia | 10 | 10 | 10 | 510 | 510 | 936 | 982 | 2578 | 8601 |
Slovenia | - | 12 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
Hungary | 542 | 281 | 5365 | 7817 | 8875 | 9741 | 46570 | 47535 | 50741 |
Croatia | - | 75 | 75 | 784 | 784 | 810 | 813 | 818 | 863 |
BiH | 401 | 351 | 351 | 351 | 351 | 592 | 598 | 601 | 607 |
Montenegro | - | - | - | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
Macedonia | - | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 26 |
Serbia | - | - | - | 200 | 200 | 268 | 484 | 505 | 647 |
Albania | - | 50 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 435 | 443 | 443 | 443 |
Total | 30100 | 34815 | 41060 | 85258 | 100877 | 133400 |
Source: 2012 Statistical Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment, China Statistics Press, 2013.
(From 2002, Chinese Government has introduced the statistical system for its investment in foreign countries. Since 2004, we can get the complete investment data.In the above table, the data from 2004—2006 does not include the financial sectors.)
Three characteristics could be found from the above data of China’s investment in V4:
First, the growth rate of investment in V4 is rapid. For example, the investment in Poland in 2012 is twice times as in 2007. The investment stock volume is more than 200 million USD in 2012 and about100 million USD in 2007. Czech Republic is ten times in 2012 as in 2007. In 2007, the investment stock is 20 million USD and 200 million USD in 2012. Slovakia is seventy times in 2012 as in 2007. In 2007, the investment stock is 5 million USD and 86 million USD in 2012; Hungary is six times in 2012 as in 2007 which the investment stock in 2007 is 78 million USD and more than 500 million USD in 2012.
Second, China’s investment in V4 holds the largest part of its investment in CEECs. China’s investment in V4 in 2012 amounts to 1.00398 billion USD which accounts for 75.3% in 16 CEECs (1.334 billion USD). Hungary, Poland, Romania, Czech Republic and Slovakia are the top five countries for China’s investment in CEECs.
Third, the proportion of China’s investment in V4 and CEE is very small comparing to the investment in the EU old members. Although V4 hold the most proportion of the China’s investment in CEE, they hold a very small part of China’s investment in the EU. In 2012, China’s investment stock volume in the EU amounts to 31.53825 billion USD and all the CEECs only accounts for 4.2% and V4 accounts for 3.18% (Ministry of Commerce of China, National Bureau of Statistics of China, State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China, 2013).
The industries that China invested in V4 mainly include: manufacturing, financial service, information and communication technologies, infrastructure, agriculture, clean energy and chemical industries and etc, according to sources from the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China.
1.2. The Root Cause of China’s increasing Investment in V4
With China’s opening-up policy in full swing and the launch of the “Going Global” strategy in the 10th Five-Year Plan period(2000-2005), China began to seek more investment opportunities in global markets. Due to China’s unfamiliarity with the rules of the large EU market and the ambiguous strategic and trade positioning of V4, it was difficult for China to find suitable investment opportunities in the region. However, in the 11th Five-Year Plan period (2006-2010), China’s investment regions were clearly transferred from Hong Kong, Macao, North America, and Western Europe to Asia Pacific, Africa, Latin America, and CEE. Chinese investors began to realize the investment potential of the CEE region, especially the V4 countries due to its specific industry advantages comparing to other CEECs (Ministry of Commerce of China, National Bureau of Statistics of China, State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China, 2012). In 2010, the Greek sovereign debt crisis triggered continuous turmoil in the Euro zone and exerted significant influences on the economic development of V4. Besides Poland, the other V4 countries underwent serious economic situation. In terms of investment opportunities, V4 began to offer China a “window of opportunity”.
The debt crisis has contributed to the change of the investment environment in V4. In 2010, the debt crisis in the Euro zone took a heavy toll on CEE, leading to a slowdown in the economic growth of the countries in the region. The World Investment Report 2012, released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(UNCTAD, 2012, p.xix), noted that against the backdrop of sustained economic development uncertainty in Europe, continued instability in global financial markets and the economic slowdown in most emerging economies, many countries adopted FDI as a way to promote economic growth and some CEECs turn their eyes to China, making the investment environment of some countries in 2011 very conducive to China’s investors. For example, Hungary has adopted the eastern dimension of its foreign policy besides the western dimension towards the EU and established the China policy unit in the cabinet to further the investment. Poland attached much importance to China and Asian countries recently as well which jointly with China hosted the first Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum. Czech Republic, although has no better relations than other V4 countries with China, it is always seeking the cooperation opportunity with China. After the new leadership came into power in 2013 and 2014, both parties began to enhance the exchange, especially in February 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping met Czech Republic President Zeman in Sochi, Russia. Czech President even invited Xi Jinping visit his country this year and exchange the possibility to hold the third China-CEE Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum after Poland in 2012 and Romania in 2013. Slovakia is also keeping the good relationship record with China for long to keep the investment cooperation momentum.
It should be emphasized that the major factor affecting changes in the investment environment in V4 is the European debt crisis. As such, the future and outlook of the crisis will directly affect Chinese investment in the region. In fact, the crisis does not pose a fundamental challenge to the capitalist system; it is just a structural crisis within the Euro zone. Despite the ongoing crisis, the grimness of the situation is expected to ease in the near future due to the internal structural adjustments between different members within the Euro zone. If the situation improves, the interaction with and even control over V4 by Euro zone countries will be restored again, V4’s dependence on the Euro zone will increase again correspondingly, and investment opportunities for external countries will gradually disappear. Therefore we can say that this round of investment in V4 is a “window of opportunity” against the backdrop of the European debt crisis.
2. V4’s Investment environment--from Chinese Perspective
2.1.The evaluation indicator of V4 investment environment.
This evaluation system synthesizes the specific characteristics of Standard&Poor, Fitch, Moody’s, DAGONG(China), EIU, CROIC-IWEP, GI, ICRG, at the same time, emphasizes China’s specific requirement and investment preferences, and especially increase the evaluation weight of bilateral relations. Therefore, it’s a new designed framework for investment environment indicators from Chinese perspective. The specific indicators are as follow:
Table 2: Political Environment Indicators(30 points)
Indicators | Description and Explanation of Indicators |
Government Stability | From 0 to 5 point, higher point, more stability of the government. |
Control of Corruption | From 0 to 5 point, higher point, more effective control of the corruption. |
Government Effectiveness | From 0 to 5 point, higher point, more effective ability of the government. |
Rule of law | From 0 to 5 point, higher point, more ability to respect the rule of law of the country. |
External Conflict | From 0 to 5 point, higher point, less intensity of external conflicts. |
Internal Conflicts | From 0 to 5 point, higher point, less intensity of internal conflicts. |
(Major reference resources: International Country Risk Guide of PRS, Worldwide Governance Indicator of World Bank, Transformation Index of Bertelsmann Stiftung。)
Table 3: Economic Environment Indicators(20 points weighted)
Indicators | Description and Explanation of Indicators |
Economic Size | The average of the latest five years GDP (2011-2015), From 0 to 10 point, higher point, bigger size of the Economy. |
Development Level | The average of the latest five years Per Capita (2011-2015), From 0 to 10 point, bigger point, higher level of economic development. |
GDP Growth Rate | The average of the latest five years GDP growth rate (2011-2015), From 0 to 10 point, bigger point, higher growth rate of the economy. |
Trade Openness | The average of the latest five years (export + import )/GDP (2011-2015), From 0 to 10 point, higher point, more openness of the Trade. |
Investment Openness | The average of the latest five years ( FDI+ODI )/GDP (2011-2015), From 0 to 10 point, higher point, more openness of the investment. |
Inflation | The average of the latest five years CPI (2009-2013), From 0 to 10 point, higher point, lower inflation. |
Debt Burden | The average of the latest five years external debt (2009-2013), From 0 to 10 point, higher point, lower debt. |
(Major reference resources: Economic Intelligence Unit, World Development Indicator of World Bank.)
Table 4: Social Environment Indicators(20 points weighted)
Indicators | Description and Explanation of Indicators |
Restriction of Capital and Personnel Movement | From 0 to 10 point, higher point, more freedom to the capital and personnel. |
Regulation of Labor Force Market | From 0 to 10 point, higher point, more freedom to the labor force. |
Commercial Control | From 0 to 10 point, higher point, less control of the commerce. |
Average Education Level | From 0 to 10 point, bigger point, higher level of the average education. |
Social Safety | From 0 to 10 point, higher point, safer of the society. |
Unemployment Rate | From 0 to 10 point, higher point, lower unemployment rate. |
(Major reference resources: Economic Freedom of the World, UNESCO, UNODC.)
Table 5: Bilateral Relationship Indicators(30 points)
Indicators | Description and Explanation of Indicators |
Bilateral strategic level | Whether signing the comprehensive or simple strategic partnership treaty? From 0 to 6, bigger point, higher lever of bilateral cooperation. |
Top-leaders mutual visits | Whether the top-leaders between two sides visit each other and how many times they visit each other in the latest five years. From 0 to 6, bigger point, higher frequencies of top leaders visit. |
Mutual perceptions between bilateral public | The mutual favorability between two sides in the latest five years. From 0 to 6, bigger point, higher degree of favorability. |
Signing the investment or trade agreements | From 0 to 6, bigger point, the higher level of investment and trade negotiation and signing. The project classified by three stages: no plan to sign, under negotiation, and signing the treaties. |
The Degree of Mutual dependence with each other in individual regions | The cooperation mechanisms or organizations from each part, and the openness and inclusiveness to each other of these mechanisms or organizations each part joined. From 0 to 6, bigger point, the higher level of openness and inclusiveness. |
(Major reference resources: Ministry of Commerce of PRC and Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC, Pew Global Attitude Project and Transatlantic Trends Survey, Delphi Methodology.)
2.2. The investment environment evaluation of V4 countries. (see the table)
Table 6: The rank and rating of CEECs’ investment environment(100 points)
rank | country | score | Political environment | Economical environment | Social environment | Bilateral relations | Rating |
1 | Poland | 88 | 24 | 18 | 18 | 28 | Very good |
2 | Hungary | 79 | 20 | 16 | 16 | 27 |
Good |
3 | Czech | 78 | 24 | 18 | 18 | 18 | |
4 | Slovakia | 77 | 24 | 16 | 16 | 21 | |
5 | Romania | 76 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 26 | |
6 | Serbia | 76 | 18 | 14 | 16 | 28 | |
7 | Estonia | 70 | 20 | 16 | 16 | 18 |
Not Bad |
8 | Latvia | 70 | 20 | 16 | 16 | 18 | |
9 | Lithuania | 70 | 20 | 16 | 16 | 18 | |
10 | Croatia | 68 | 20 | 14 | 16 | 18 | |
11 | Bulgaria | 67 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 20 | |
12 | Slovenia | 66 | 20 | 12 | 16 | 18 | |
13 | Montenegro | 65 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 18 | |
14 | Macedonia | 65 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 18 | |
15 | Albania | 64 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 18 | Not Good |
16 | BiH | 62 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 18 |
(In the table, over 95 points means excellent; from 85 to 95 means very good; from 75 to 85 means good; from 65 to 75 means not bad; from 55 to 65 means not good; and less 55 means very bad. )
From the above evaluation, we can get the following conclusions:
First, the investment environment of V4 countries is better than any other CEECs and locate the top 4 countries in the table. Especially, Poland is more favorable according to this evaluation and near to Germany (90 points) in the EU. The market potential and prospects from V4 are favorable generally.
Second, Except Poland, V4 and other CEECs’ market sizes are not big. However, Chinese investors are more preferable to a relatively bigger size market. Thus the evaluation points are lowered to some extend which may be the major influential variables to influence the Chinese investors’ interests in this regain. V4 and CEECs’ advantages in the long run are the economic or political geography near to EU and Eurasia markets, at the same time, the unified CEECs including V4 also has some attractions for China.
Third, we should not neglect the factors of bilateral relationship. Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Serbia have good relationship with China, So they have more investment and higher evaluation scores. Czech is influenced by bilateral relations, otherwise, it will earn more investment from China. Let just take Serbia as a special example, Serbia has not big size market, not EU membership and more favorable environments compare to V4, however, due to the special strategic partnership with China, it becomes a favorable location in South East Europe for Chinese investors.
Last but not the least, EU membership has some influences to China’s investment,but not the most decisive factor. This is a twin sword effect. On one side, EU membership is a good confirmation of the countries’ good performance in political, economical and social indicators. However, from Serbia case, we can find that, no EU membership means less restrictions from EU, and it shows a more opportunities for Chinese investors on the contrary. So you can see, although the bad rating of Western Balkan countries, Chinese investors still show its interests in this region. The ten billion credit line from China were granted to Montenegro and BiH last year. This also shows China’s new investment inclination, if those countries have some risks, but not huge, China will have a try.
3. China’s Investment Pattern and Characteristics in V4
3.1.China underlines the integrity of investment distribution and strengthens the overall transfer of the chain of production, processing and marketing.
Currently, more and more Chinese investors can be seen working in construction sectors that range from transportation (ports, airports, and roads) to local assembly and distribution networks (the construction of industrial parks), and even to logistics facilities (investment in sea transportation and the construction of container companies and telecommunications networks) in CEECs. Chinese investment in V4 can already be characterized by integrity. It has been developed from trade towns and trade centers, focusing only on the concentration of labor and on fixed stall sales to the diversification of investment industries and the development of the value chain. With the increase of green field investment, mergers and acquisitions,and joint ventures in V4 Chinese enterprises have sought to introduce specific production models, such as infrastructure construction, machinery manufacturing, information and service industries as well as the development of chemical and agricultural products. They regard V4 as a center to upgrade, sell and distribute products to realize the localization and even “Europeanization” of the production, circulation, sales and branding of Chinese products. They can also use V4 as a springboard to enter the vast markets in the EU, Russia and Turkey. This is one of the main characteristics of Chinese investment in V4 at present, and it will remain so in the foreseeable future.
3.2. Characteristic investment industries have gradually emerged
Currently, China’s characteristic investment industries in V4 are gradually emerging. Largely centering on China’s comparative advantages in technology and human capital, as well as its early-bird advantage, Chinese investment is implemented in keeping with the actual investment needs of V4. Investment industries mainly include infrastructure construction, the development of information and communications technology, clean energy (mainly technological investment) and machinery processing and manufacturing.
Although a Chinese company withdrew from Poland’s A2 highway project after incurring heavy losses in 2012 (see the case studies in the following), China’s investment in infrastructure construction in V4 has a sound momentum of development. In 2013, China signed the agreement with Hungary and Serbia to build the Hungary-Serbia Railway when Premier Li Keqiang visited Bucharest. Chinese information and communications technology companies such as Huawei, ZTE or Lenovo have invested across V4, especially Lenovo established technical service center in Slovakia serving for Europe, Middle East and Africa. With a wide business scope, many Chinese companies have exerted a relatively large impact. In terms of machinery processing and manufacturing, China has invested in the production lines of electrical appliances, automobiles and heavy machinery in many V4 including Hungary, Poland. For example, at the end of January 2012, Liuzhou-based Liugong Machinery Corp. acquired the Polish construction machinery enterprise HSW, one of the largest construction machinery manufacturers in CEE with a highly respected international position in the heavy engineering equipment sector, exporting to more than 80 countries. After acquiring HSW, Liugong can obtain all of the company’s intellectual property rights and trademarks, and it can establish a manufacturing as well as research and development base in Poland. Based on its operations in Poland, Liugong can radiate its influence to the whole European market. As part of its efforts to integrate the above-mentioned competitive industries, China has also strengthened the construction of industrial parks in V4 so as to encourage and attract investors from China and expand the influence of Chinese investment in V4.
3.3. China focuses on cooperation with V4 and expands investment from key countries to the whole CEE region.
China does not invest in all CEECs indiscriminately; it pays more attention to countries that have prominent investment advantages and that hold more balanced composite indicators, especially CEECs that have advantages in geography, industrial bases, resource endowment and labor force quality. What China values most is the fact that some CEECs can serve as springboards and bridgeheads. For example, Hungary and Poland have become important choices for China. Hungary has attracted more Chinese-funded institutions and Chinese businessmen than any other country in CEE. Chinese investment in Hungary covers industries such as trade, finance, aviation, chemicals, logistics, real estate,consulting services, communications and electronics manufacturing. In 2010 and 2011, Wanhua Industrial Group Co. Ltd., the controlling shareholder of Yantai Wanhua Polyurethanes Co. Ltd., invested a total amount of 1.263 billion euros in two consecutive years to acquire a 96% stake in the Hungarian chemical company BorsodChem. This is the largest Chinese investment in CEE. To a certain extent, investment in these countries will drive investment in the entire CEE region.
3.4. The soft environment for investment in V4 has improved.
The Chinese government vigorously promotes cultural exchanges between China and V4, holds various investment forums, dispatches “investment promotion delegations” to V4 to promote investment, and strengthens the exchange of information. China has especially sought to invite officials in charge of foreign investment in V4 and other CEECs to China for exchanges and training, so as to help them understand China’s economic situation and investment policies. On top of this, China has set up a cultural exchange mechanism between China and CEE and created a research fund to promote mutual understanding.
4. Problems and Challenges
China’s main investment approach in V4 is to move the whole industrial chain to the region and build it into a product upgrading center as well as a sales center, so as to realize the localization of production, flow and sales of Chinese goods, and further to enter EU, Russian and Turkish markets. However, there remain certain investment risks. Some EU member states have realized China’s investment tendencies. Some members of the European Parliament clearly express that China will be welcomed if its investment can provide employment opportunities and bring profits, but that it will be met with strong opposition if it only wants to use V4 as its export base and sales centers. Competition between China and V4 caused by the convergence of some industries cannot be ignored either. For example, both Poland and Hungary feature processing industries to meet the demand of the European market and they are regarded as the miniatures of China in the EU market (Marek Belka, 2012).
Chinese investors have long been concerned about the investment value and the market capacities of V4. Most of the high-quality assets of V4 have been absorbed by Western countries due to privatization that occurred during the transformation period of the 1990s. As a result, most of the high-quality assets are currently still being controlled by those early birds. What Chinese enterprises gained from V4 are mainly poorly managed businesses. Meanwhile, most of V4’s market capacities are comparatively limited, which makes it difficult for Chinese investors to reap high profits. Besides, the integration of the market rules of V4 with the EU also makes it more difficult for Chinese enterprises to establish themselves in the region.
Stakeholders, including some influential interest groups in the EU, are concerned about China’s entry into the V4 market and are thus trying to curb it. Since the outbreak of the European debt crisis, China’s involvement in CEE has triggered serious concerns from EU institutions, Germany and other EU members, which speculate that China is trying to divide the EU and establish a “CEE group”. In 2012, the joint communiqué to be publicized during a meeting between China and CEE was submitted to EU institutions for advanced review. The EU strongly opposed the proposal to develop long-term China-CEE relations and institutionalize these relations. German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed her concern about closed, exclusive discussions between China and CEECs including V4. EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht even said that China’s behavior will pose challenge for EU common trade policies.
Moreover, negative campaigning by the media and think tanks poses other pressures on Chinese investment. When entering V4, China was criticized by some local media of abusing fair trade rules and dumping products at low prices to compete unfairly(Marta Golonka, 2012,). Some think tanks believe that Chinese investment policies are driven by political interests. China needs the support of CEECs to exert its clout on the great powers in the EU, they argue, adding that the formation of a CEE alliance may push the EU to make decisions beneficial to China. Some other think tanks even posit that China adopts different diplomatic criteria toward CEECs based on their economic potential and political attitudes. For example, Poland and the Czech Republic, whose state leaders often meet with the Dalai Lama and criticize China’s human rights records, usually get Chinese investment disproportionate to their economic scale. While Hungary and Slovakia, thanks to their full support of China, get much Chinese investment in return.
Finally, China is not familiar with V4 after their political transitions. Since the early 1990s, the priority of V4 has been to consolidate democracy, integrate with the West and join the EU. China is mainly engaged in developing its economy and maintaining social stability. China and V4 used to be close with each other; however, they became estranged from one another due to their different strategic development orientations since the end of the Cold War. There are different kinds of languages, cultures, ethnic groups, religions and histories in V4. V4 are geographically far from China and have undergone considerable change. All of these factors make them more difficult for China to understand.
Let’s just take Poland as an example.
In September 2009, Poland’s A2 highway opened invitation for bidding. Directly connecting Warsaw and Berlin, the highway was an important project for the Euro 2012 Football Championship, which was jointly hosted by Poland and Ukraine. China Overseas Engineering Group Co. Ltd. (COVEC), a subsidiary of China Railway Group Ltd., responded to the tender quickly. Ultimately, the bidding consortium headed by COVEC won the contract with 1.3 billion zlotys(US$472 million, RMB3.049 billion) to build sections A and C. The highway project marked the first time for Chinese companies to engage in such large-scale infrastructure construction in any EU country. COVEC had been trying to enter the European infrastructure market, and undoubtedly the A2 highway project provided a good opportunity for the company to prove itself. However, this project eventually ended with the Polish government terminating its contract with COVEC in June 2011, and as a result, Chinese infrastructure companies’ “first bid” in CEE ended in failure. For COVEC’s investment in Poland, the domestic media concluded that COVEC got clobbered due to its blind entry. In fact, we should analyze COVEC’s investment in an objective and balanced way. Only by doing this can the case provide comprehensive references for future Chinese investment in CEE.
4.1.Some unpredictable risks should be considered in COVEC’s investment in Poland.
4.1.1.COVEC’s project happened to coincide with the financial crisis in 2009, when raw material prices were relatively low. After winning the bid, the schedule was put off due to cold weather. Meanwhile, the Polish economy recovered quickly and Poland began to extensively build infrastructure projects for Euro 2012. Prices of various raw materials for infrastructure rose so sharply that the rental prices of some raw materials and excavating equipment went up more than five times in just one year. Given soaring costs of infrastructure construction, the Chinese investors suffered losses at the very start.
4.1.2.China gained explicit support from Polish authorities to invest in the project. On the one hand, the Polish Peasants’ Party, one of the ruling parties, was eager to create achievements and strongly believed in the speed of Chinese enterprises. On the other hand, European and American contractors were charging way too much. In order to drive down prices, the Polish government tended to have Chinese companies involved, and the Polish Peasants’ Party representatives were sent to China to lobby. The Chinese took it for granted that they could win the contract first and then ask the Polish government for help when troubles occurred. So they proposed an extremely low offer, which did not arouse suspicions from Polish government officials.
In fact, things did not work out as expected when the Chinese contractors encountered difficulties. In June 2011, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk firmly refused China’s request to adjust the bid and terminated the contract with China.
4.1.3.Poland’s highway authority operated irregularly in the bidding process and deliberately concealed some construction difficulties. In addition, the bidding procedure was neither fair nor transparent. Given all the above-mentioned factors, there were particular reasons for the failure of COVEC’s investment in Poland.
4.2.COVEC’s own carelessness and ill preparedness should not go unnoticed.
4.2.1.COVEC was unfamiliar with the situation and invested recklessly. In the early stages of investment, the Chinese side relied too heavily on the opinions of several Polish experts. It did not fully examine the particular local situations for infrastructure, nor did it know the special provisions of the EU, such as provisions that mandated passages for protecting wildlife along the highway and the employment of local workers. Worse still, the Chinese side was not familiar with local suppliers of raw materials. All these resulted in COVEC seriously overshooting its budget.
4.2.2.Slack technical checks were another problem. The Chinese contractors did not realize that the functional specification provided by Poland was unclear, nor did they comprehend the complex geological conditions of the sections they had been contracted to build. The Chinese technical staff made the decision in a hurry without undergoing sufficient preparations before bidding.
4.2.3.Poor internal management. With many disputes existing in the consortium and the working relationship not straightened out, the work efficiency of the Chinese side was seriously affected.
4.3.Chinese companies must seriously improve crisis-prevention awareness and public relations capabilities.
When evaluating COVEC’s investment against the larger background of China’s “Going Global” strategy, we can find more in-depth problems that Chinese companies will face when investing overseas, such as unsound supplementary measures for investment. As a highway for Euro 2012, the most widely watched sporting event in all of Europe, COVEC’s “unfinished project” in Poland was scrutinized by people of all walks of life, ranging from prime ministers and royal families to regular civilians, resulting in a negative impact that the Chinese side was unprepared for. It showed that Chinese companies are seriously in lack of crisis-prevention awareness, public relations capabilities as well as sound supplementary measures when investing.
5. Policy Suggestions
5.1. China should clarify its strategic intentions to V4 and other CEECs when investing in CEE, namely further promoting cooperation between China and the EU via cooperation with V4 and CEECs.
When investing in V4, China has the intention of upgrading its place on the industrial chain and localizing production in the region, which is basically a form of economic behavior. Chinese investors always pursue the principles of mutual benefit and win-win outcomes; and they will also comply with EU laws and regulations. China’s investment plays an important role in the promotion of economic development in V4 and the promotion of balanced development between Eastern Europe and Western Europe within the EU. This will be a great opportunity to deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and the EU.
5.2. China should properly address the issues of risk aversion and crisis management when investing in V4.
The support of local governments and non-governmental organizations is indispensable to investing in the economic development of V4. As a result, sound supplementary work will be necessary, and China ought to make use of investment opportunities to extensively contact local institutions for deeper understanding and cooperation. For the purpose of risk aversion and improving its crisis management capabilities, China needs to create conditions for the establishment of investment risk analysis teams and foundations formed by local elites and relevant agencies such as think tanks. The main purpose of the risk analysis teams is to gather information, conduct in-depth investigations into investment risks, and avoid walking into unfamiliar territories blindly. The principal objective of establishing local foundations is to help with crisis prevention and crisis management.
5.3. Both Chinese and V4’s governments ought to strengthen the guidance and support of investment from China.
Bilateral governments need to guide enterprises to flexibly choose the right model of investment according to the specific characteristics of a given project. In addition to green field investment, enterprises can explore and adopt models like joint ventures, mergers and acquisitions and participating in privatization. They may also pursue the possibility of cooperating with multinational companies on projects that call for huge investment and draw public attention.
Bilateral governments ought to jointly resolve specific technical barriers. First, it is difficult for Chinese workers to get labor visas, work permits, and legal residencies, factors that hurt the expansion of investment in V4. Second, social security poses a problem. There are no social security agreements between China and V4. Chinese workers need to pay pensions and unemployment insurance in V4. However, when they return to China, the insurance premiums paid cannot be returned and this poses an additional burden to Chinese enterprises. Third, in order to attract investment,V4 generally promise to provide some preferential policies; nevertheless, it is difficult to put them into practice due to systemic constraints in the actual implementation process. Bilateral governments ought to negotiate to push the policy implementation on these issues.
Belka, Marek, 2012, the Governor of the Central Bank of Poland, mentioned this point in the speech in the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Science on July 12.
Golonka, Marta, 2012, Partners or Rivals? Chinese Investments in Central and Eastern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe Development Institute, http://ceedinstitute.org/report/1717.
Ministry of Commerce of China, National Bureau of Statistics of China, State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China, 2012, 2011 Statistical Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment, Beijing: China Statistics Press.
Ministry of Commerce of China, National Bureau of Statistics of China, State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China, 2013, 2012 Statistical Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment, Beijing: China Statistics Press.
Minghuan, Li, 2003, Social Transformation of Eastern Europe and the Formation of the New Chinese Businessmen, World Ethno-National Studies, on.2, 2003.
UNCTAD, 2012, World Investment Report, http://www.unctad-docs.org/files/UNCTAD-
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